What is the probability that Russia attacks Europe?

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Russia has not officially announced its intention to go beyond the Ukrainian’s border, but Moscow has also previously stated that it will not invade Ukraine. What is the probability that Russia attacks Europe?

russia attacks europe

Putin’s speech that shocked the world

In a televised address as Russia’s attack on Ukraine has begun, President Vladimir Putin warned other countries that any attempt to intervene into this situation «will lead to implications that you have never met in history.»

Will Putin attack Europe?

Karin von Hippel, who was a non-political senior adviser at the US State Department during the Obama administration, suggested that President Putin can potentially target non-NATO countries in Eastern Europe such as Moldova and Georgia.

He added that if the Russian leader «starts to slowly expand his empire, there will be several other places in NATO that are going to be extremely stressed out.»

“It’s very unclear at this stage that anyone can convince Putin to do anything other than what he wants to do,” he said.

President Lukashenko is a close ally of President Putin, and Russia has been able to use his country as a launchpad for air and missile attacks on Ukraine.

Based on a map shown during the televised broadcast from President Lukashenko, their plans may go beyond Ukraine.

Russia's plans to invade Moldova
Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko may have revealed Russia’s plans to invade Moldova

The map showed attack plans for Ukraine, but also displayed a possible route into Moldova from the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, via a large red arrow.

It also showed red shading around the Moldovan border, potentially indicating plans for an occupation.

If Russia were to invade Moldova or Georgia the situation is likely to be similar to that of Ukraine, in that NATO forces including the UK and US would support Moldova by sending both military and non-military aid, but would not engage in battle with Russian troops directly.

Can Russia Invade Europe? (video)

Questions & Answers

What happens if a NATO country is attacked?
Article Five of the treaty states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the NATO member states, it is considered an attack on all members, and other members must assist the attacked member with military forces, if necessary.
What country has the largest army in NATO?
The most recent data released by NATO show that the US is the largest contributor to the alliance. According to NATO estimates for 2022, the US is providing 1.4 million armed men, representing 41% of the alliance's 3.3 million armed men. The remaining 59% comes from Canada and European countries.
Is Russia bigger that Europe?
Russia is the largest country in the world. Its territory is 4 times larger than the whole Europe. But only 20% of the territory of Russia is considered habitable, 80% is swamps, mountains, and permafrost.

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